# "Pivotal questions"
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Suggest a pivotal question using [this form](https://coda.io/form/Expression-of-Interest-for-The-Unjournal-Pilot_dUpq6ZxNtdC) (or express your interest as an organization).
Keep track of of our progress: see this '[forum sequence](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/kazWBBYXm2Rvya3y2)' and\
this [public database of PQs](https://coda.io/d/Unjournal-Public-Pages_ddIEzDONWdb/Pivotal-questions-database-Public-WIP_su3FOC8M).
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## The Pivotal Questions project in brief
[The Unjournal](http://unjournal.org) commissions public evaluations of impactful research in quantitative social sciences fields. We are seeking *pivotal questions* to guide our choice of research papers to commission for evaluation. We're contacting organizations that aim to use evidence to do the most good, and asking:
* *Which open questions most affect your policies and funding recommendations*?
* *For which questions would research yield the highest ‘value of information’?*\\
The Unjournal has focused on finding [*research papers*](#user-content-fn-1)[^1] that seems relevant to impactful questions and crucial considerations, and then commissioning experts to publicly evaluate them. (For more about our process, see [here](https://globalimpact.gitbook.io/the-unjournal-project-and-communication-space/policies-projects-evaluation-workflow)). Our field specialist teams search and monitor prominent research archives (like [NBER](https://www.nber.org/papers?page=1\&perPage=50\&sortBy=public_date#listing-77041)), and consider [agendas from impactful organizations](https://airtable.com/applDG6ifmUmeEJ7j/shrQkVhLlJSpRKOGY), while keeping an eye on forums and social media.
We're now exploring turning this on its head and identifying *pivotal questions* first and identifying evaluating a cluster of research that informs these. This could offer a more efficient and observable path to impact. (For context, see our [‘logic model’ flowchart for our theory of change](https://globalimpact.gitbook.io/the-unjournal-project-and-communication-space/benefits-and-features/global-priorities-theory-of-change).)\\
## The process
#### Elicit questions
The Unjournal will ask impact-focused research-driven organizations such as Open Philanthropy and Charity Entrepreneurship to identify specific [quantifiable questions](#user-content-fn-2)[^2] that impact their funding, policy, and research-direction choices. For example, If GiveWell is considering recommending a charity running a CBT intervention in West Africa, they’d like to know “how much does a 16 week course of non-specialist psychotherapy increase self-reported happiness, compared to the same amount spent on direct cash transfers?” We’re looking for the questions with the highest value-of-information (VOI) for the organization’s work over the next few years.
We have some requirements — the questions should relate to The Unjournal’s coverage areas and engage rigorous research in economics, social science, policy, or impact quantification. Ideally, organizations will identify at least one piece of publicly-available research that relates to their question. But we are doing this mainly to *help* these organizations, so we will try to keep it simple and low-effort for them.
More examples of questions
* If The Center for Humane Technology is considering a political campaign for AI safety in California, they could consider “how much does television and social media advertisements increase the vote share for ballot initiatives supporting the regulation of technology and business for safety reasons?”
* OP might be considering funding organizations that promote democracy, largely because they think democracies may be more resilient to global catastrophies. As a tractable proxy, they may want to know “by what percentage does a country being a democracy reduce the loss of life in a natural disaster on the scale of a 7+ magnitude earthquake”?
* If a CE project is considering promoting farmed fish welfare legislation in India, they might ask “as the price of India-farmed fish increases by 10%, how much will consu
We will work to minimize the effort required from these organizations; e.g., by leveraging their existing writings and agendas to suggest potential high value-of-information questions. We will also crowdsource questions (via EA Forum, social media, etc.), offering bounties for valuable suggestions.\\
#### Select, refine, and get feedback on the target questions
The Unjournal team will discuss the suggested questions, leveraging our field specialists’ expertise. We’ll rank these questions, prioritizing at least one for each organization.
We’ll work with the organization to *specify the priority question precisely and in a useful way*. We want to be sure that (1) evaluators will interpret these questions as intended, and (2) the answers that come out are likely to actually be helpful. We’ll make these lists of questions public and solicit general feedback — on their relevance, on their framing, on key sub-questions, and on pointers to relevant research.
Where practicable, we will operationalize the target questions as a claim on a prediction market (for example, Metaculus) to be resolved by the evaluations and synthesis below.
**Where feasible, post these on public prediction markets (such as Metaculus)**
If the question is well operationalized, and we have a clear approach to 'resolving it' after the evaluations and synthesis, we will post it on a reputation-based market like [Metaculus](https://metaculus.com/) or [Manifold](https://app.gitbook.com/s/scEoiIiYYQByE1FaibWQ/tools-and-examples/cole_haus-modeling). Metaculus is offering 'minitaculus' platforms such as [this one on Sudan](https://www.metaculus.com/project/Sudan/) to enable these more flexible questions.
#### Elicit stakeholder beliefs
We will ask (and help) the organizations and interested parties to specify their own beliefs about these questions, aka their 'priors'. We may adapt the Metaculus interface for this.
#### Source and prioritize research informing the target questions
Once we’ve converged on the target question, we’ll do a variation of our usual evaluation process.
For each question, we will prioritize roughly two to five [relevant research papers](#user-content-fn-3)[^3]. These may be suggested by the organization that proposed the question, sourced by The Unjournal, or discovered through community feedback ([see note](#user-content-fn-4)[^4]).
#### Commission expert evaluations of research, informing the target questions
As we normally do, we’ll have *evaluation managers* recruit [expert evaluators to assess each paper](#user-content-fn-5)[^5]. However, we’ll ask the evaluators to [focus on the target question](#user-content-fn-6)[^6], and to consider the target organization’s priorities.
We’ll also [enable phased deliberation and discussion among evaluators](#user-content-fn-7)[^7]. This is inspired by the[ repliCATS project](https://replicats.research.unimelb.edu.au/), and some evidence suggesting that the (mechanistically aggregated) estimates of experts after deliberations [perform better](#user-content-fn-8)[^8] than their independent estimates (also mechanistically aggregated). We may also facilitate collaborative evaluations and ‘live reviews’, following the examples of [ASAPBio](https://asapbio.org/crowd-preprint-review), [PREreview](https://prereview.org/live-reviews), and others.
#### Get feedback from paper authors and from the target organization(s)
We will contact both the research authors (as per our standard process) and the target organizations for their responses to the evaluations, and for follow-up questions. We’ll foster a productive discussion between them (while preserving anonymity as requested, and being careful not to overtax people’s time and generosity)
#### Prepare a *Synthesis Report*
[We’ll commission one or more](#user-content-fn-9)[^9] evaluation managers to write a report as a summary of the research investigated.
These reports should synthesize “What do the research, evaluations, and responses say about the question/claim?” They should provide an overall metric relating to the truth value of the target question (or similar for the parameter of interest). In cases where we integrate prediction markets, they should decisively resolve the market claim.
Next, we will share these synthesis reports with authors and organizations for feedback.
#### (Where applicable) Resolve the prediction markets
#### Complete and publish the ‘target question evaluation packages’
We’ll put up each evaluation on our[ Unjournal.pubpub.org](http://unjournal.pubpub.org) page, bringing them into academic search tools, databases, bibliometrics, etc. We’ll also curate them, linking them to the relevant target question and to the synthesis report.
We will produce, share, and promote further summaries of these packages. This could include forum and blog posts summarizing the results and insights, as well as interactive and visually appealing web pages. We may also produce less technical content, perhaps submitting work to outlets like[ Asterisk](https://asteriskmag.com/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect), or [worksinprogress.co](https://worksinprogress.co/).
### ‘Operationalizable’ questions
At least initially, we’re planning to ask for questions that could be definitively answered and/or measured quantitatively. We will help organizations and other suggesters refine their questions to make this the case. These should resemble questions that could be posted on forecasting platforms such as [Manifold Markets](https://manifold.markets/) or [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/home/). These should also resemble the ['claim identification'](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1mBkAmCVomcUt0Ks7hsxShTsjAbx3WVtFfMCnasGQxns/edit) we currently request from evaluators.
We give detailed guidance with examples below:
{% content-ref url="pivotal-questions/operationalizable-questions" %}
[operationalizable-questions](https://open-2c.gitbook.com/url/globalimpact.gitbook.io/the-unjournal-project-and-communication-space/pivotal-questions/operationalizable-questions)
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*Why* do we want these pivotal questions to be 'operationalizable'?
{% content-ref url="pivotal-questions/why-operationalizable-questions" %}
[why-operationalizable-questions](https://open-2c.gitbook.com/url/globalimpact.gitbook.io/the-unjournal-project-and-communication-space/pivotal-questions/why-operationalizable-questions)
{% endcontent-ref %}
### How you can help us
#### Give us feedback on this proposal
We’re still refining this idea, and looking for your suggestions about what is unclear, what could go wrong, what might make this work better, what has been tried before, and where the biggest wins are likely to be. We’d appreciate your feedback! (Feel free to email to make suggestions or arrange a discussion.)
#### Suggest organizations and people we should reach out to
#### Suggest target questions
If you work for an impact-focused research organization and you are interested in participating in our pilot, ***please reach out to us at to flag your interest and/or complete*** [**this form**](https://coda.io/form/Expression-of-Interest-for-The-Unjournal-Pilot_dUpq6ZxNtdC). We would like to see:
* A brief description of what your organization does (linking your ‘about us’ page is fine)
* A specific, [operationalized](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rOp9_7g7wG_0gEGKWEL_dCgZE4tlrjYhfZTTUlZcmBs/edit#heading=h.lmscceyw2s4z), high-value claim or research question you'd like to be evaluated, that falls within our scope (\~quantitative social science, economics, policy, and impact measurement)
* A brief explanation of *why* this question is particularly high-value for your organization or your work, and, if applicable, how you have tried to answer it
* If possible, a link to at least one research paper that relates to this question
* Optionally, your current beliefs about this question (your ‘priors’)
*Please also let us know how you would like to engage with us* on refining this question and addressing it. Do you want to follow up with a 1-1 meeting? How much time are you willing to put in? Who, if anyone, should we reach out to at your organization?
*Remember that we plan to make all of this analysis and evaluation public. However, we will not make any of your input public without your consent.*
If you don’t represent an organization, we still welcome your suggestions, and will try to give feedback. ([Note on 'bounties](#user-content-fn-10)[^10]'.)
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Again, please remember that we currently focus on quantitative \~social sciences fields, including economics, policy, and impact modeling (see [here](https://globalimpact.gitbook.io/the-unjournal-project-and-communication-space/policies-projects-evaluation-workflow/considering-projects/what-specific-areas-do-we-cover) for more detail on our coverage). Questions surrounding (for example) technical AI safety, microbiology, or measuring animal sentience are less likely to be in our domain.
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If you want to talk about this first, or if you have any questions, please send an email or [schedule a meeting](https://calendly.com/daaronr) with David Reinstein, our co-founder and director.
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[^1]: And projects in forms other than papers. See [dynamic-documents-vs-living-projects](https://open-2c.gitbook.com/url/globalimpact.gitbook.io/the-unjournal-project-and-communication-space/benefits-and-features/dynamic-documents-vs-living-projects "mention")
[^2]: We may later expand this to somewhat more open-ended and general questions; see discussion in later sections.
[^3]: Or dynamic ‘projects’, or non-academic rigorous work — see[ discussion here](https://globalimpact.gitbook.io/the-unjournal-project-and-communication-space/benefits-and-features/dynamic-documents-vs-living-projects), and notes on our ‘[applied stream](https://globalimpact.gitbook.io/the-unjournal-project-and-communication-space/policies-projects-evaluation-workflow/considering-projects/applied-and-policy-track-trial)’.
[^4]: We discuss how this relates to our typical rules for ‘what we need permission to evaluate’ [here](https://coda.io/d/_ddIEzDONWdb/Evaluating-Pivotal-Questions_suamu#_luJvW).
[^5]: Naturally, we may ask some experts to evaluate multiple papers within the same question or theme.
[^6]: This could be integrated with the “claim evaluation” section we’re[ introducing](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1mBkAmCVomcUt0Ks7hsxShTsjAbx3WVtFfMCnasGQxns/edit#heading=h.ljcrdyqus3l8) to our evaluation forms (see [here](https://coda.io/form/Unjournal-evaluation-form-applied-stream_dkjUPyzvHoH)).\
\
We’ll also ask them to evaluate the paper according to The Unjournal’s [standard](https://globalimpact.gitbook.io/the-unjournal-project-and-communication-space/policies-projects-evaluation-workflow/evaluation/guidelines-for-evaluators) or [applied stream](https://coda.io/form/Unjournal-evaluation-form-applied-stream_dkjUPyzvHoH) guidelines. But we’ll cut them some slack here, and offer additional compensation for the extra work.
[^7]: We have plans to do this in general (see[ sketch here](https://coda.io/d/_ddIEzDONWdb/_sujIB#_luRE_)). This seems particularly promising for this pivotal questions project, as we have a more well-defined and measurable task.
[^8]: Here, we’re relying on Anca Hanea, a member of our Advisory Board who focuses on aggregating expert judgment. Academic work such as[ Rowe and Wright 2001](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Expert-Opinions-in-Forecasting%3A-The-Role-of-the-Rowe-Wright/e315327ee3c6eebbb18152b9d9d97c1e31006b58) (“Delphi groups are somewhat more accurate than statistical groups (which are made up of noninteracting individuals whose judgments are aggregated)”) also seems to support this point.
[^9]: See details [here](https://coda.io/d/_ddIEzDONWdb/Evaluating-Pivotal-Questions_suamu#_luNnx).
[^10]: As noted above, we may offer bounties in the future for suggestions that we engage with. Any such bounty will also apply retroactively, to suggestions made in response to this post.